I think Labour will win the 2010 elections in the UK. Why? Simple mathematics.
1. The Conservatives haven’t garnered enough popular support;
2. Labour is associated with maintaining and increasing benefits and public sector employment; too many people now depend on these for their daily bread, especially in a recession;
3. Most constituencies are solidly for one party or another. If 1. above is the case, the Conservatives can’t win enough marginals to earn a solid majority in Parliament.
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Not winning might suit the Conservatives if this recession drags on. The cuts to public spending necessary to keep Britain afloat will make whoever implements them deeply unpopular. The Conservatives could then bait and badger Gordon Brown from the sidelines, over controversial budget measures. Labour’s likely reduced majority will make them vulnerable to this.