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Economic and Political Predictions, UK, May, 2022.

The following have occurred historically recently:

Negative:

– The UK exited the EU;

– Large swathes of industry were shut down or partially disabled as a reaction to Covid;


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– Environmental leglislation has throttled traditional energy generation methods;

– The UK government spent billions in putting millions of workers on what was effectively a dole;

– The UK government quickly reacted to the invasion of the Ukraine by severing ties with Russia, blacklisting it internationally and attempting to seize its citizens property. This puts a chill in inward UK investment. Smart UK subjects would also have noted this development;

— Russia has invaded Ukraine. The Ukraine is now unable to export essential goods and the West has banned Russian ones;

– The UK, like the USA, cannot now ever repay its debts, unless it devalues its currency; its national debt is too large;

Inflation for essential goods is now increasing at a disturbing rate;

– Post-Christian nations are tolerating, and even applauding, destructive behaviour by citizens;

Moral hazard has increased in banking and in the finances of most western nations; if a government is a lender of last resort, and it will also bail out the banks it hosts, why exercise caution in finance?

– Homes are now unaffordable multiples of the average income. More middle and working-class people are being forced to rent;

– Rents have increased dramatically to a very high proportion of income, due to supply and demand. Houses and apartments are being bought as investments by foreigners and vulture funds. The construction industry learned from the ’08 crash and is now throttling construction. Immigration has also increased demand.

Positive:

– The UK exited the EU;

– Stock markets have not reacted to the effective bankruptcy of their host nations;

– Covid and Brexit have resulted in a higher demand for workers generally. Many workers on furlough realised they hated their old job and did not return to it. Foreign workers migrated back to their home countries;

– The UK had a relatively mild winter, so its electricity grid was not sorely tested;

– The UK can now place itself as an independent venue for international investment – an offshore haven, essentially.

Predictions based on the above: 

– The UK and USA will be lucky if they can slide past the hot summer months of 2022 without rioting or outright rebellion by their citizens becoming more commonplace. It will depend on whether a buoyant job market can compensate for rising inflation.

Hot weather inflames tempers and, more crucially, makes mass assemblies in temperate climates more popular. Add to that the number of young men and women on holidays from school, throw in recent idle graduates and some dumb ‘outrage’ will light the spark.

– There may be a depression if the negative factors swamp the positive. Usually, there is a run on something that has a ripple effect on the wider economy: stocks, derivatives or a big player like a nation state defaulting on its debts.

The public and political reactions to Brexit, Covid and the Ukraine invasion indicate that wisdom and cunning are now in short supply in the West. The sober Christian gentleman will have to make plans accordingly.